Eclipse: historical perspective (1)
LIVE COVID follow-up (21)
By Charles-Edouard!
Seen on the web, the percolation of our ideas, the breaking of the dam
Having an explanatory theory is a door to strategic intelligence. It is not necessary to be smart, but it is not forbidden either!
History of Eclipse: In the beginning: Fauci and Davey vs Fischer
The discovery of the 1/7 was made against a background of seemingly contradictory data: on the one hand, FAUCI had shown the feasibility of a 7/14, in a pre-study in the USA, and then showed, in a
clinical trial that had
nothing clinical about it, that the 5/7 was better than the 7/7 and the 7/14. The 'clinical' trial, in Uganda, had nothing to guarantee that the patients, once back home, would follow the instructions to the letter.
The test favored cheatingThe 'clinical trial' in Uganda had nothing to guarantee that the patients, once they returned home, would follow the instructions to the letter: very toxic drugs were prescribed to Africans, who, moreover, had to pay for them out of their own pockets, at a high price. Of course, everyone did as they could, and swore they followed the protocol... One can imagine...
Intermittency is incompatible with non-adherence, and is not the solution! There are still clinicians who believe that proposing 4/7 to a non-observant person will solve this problem:
it is false! And all the more false as the drugs have a better tolerability.
Free translation in French of the original document
(www.tinyurl.com/HPC-FAUCY), is
here. This translation is placed in the
complete file.
In 1999,
Davey (and Fauci) published a study in which he announced that the average rebound time was 9 days with a standard deviation of 11 days:
this reading of the table is an error, as
we shall see later. This reading of the table is an error, we will come back to it. It is as much to say that a non-negligible percentage of patients had a negative Eclipse. First of all, this is a misuse of the Gaussian curve. This will be explained later under the name of
Davey's Statistical Error... Davey wrote:
'[rebound] most often beginning during weeks 2-3 after stopping antiretroviral therapy.'
Fisher was more alarmist, finding patients (about 25%) with rebound between 4 and 7 days.
Here is the story of the Eclipse as I know it.
Relative to the prevailing dogma, the 1/7 puts you on your ass. Leibowitch explained it more or less to his patients and colleagues. R. Cross reported how he understood, by his own admission, not so much. Seen from the patient's point of view,
it works and why it works doesn't really matter. In the Darwinian process, an incremental development brings out more advantageous configurations: one must therefore roll the die many times and observe. De Truchis could say of Leibowitch that he was a bit of a gambler...
Leibowitch turned to Pierre Sonigo, who is a little genius in the biology of HIV, and who was the first to decode its genome (which makes it possible to do PCR, which in practice you call CV). Sonigo wrote a book with Jean-Jacques Kupiec that popularized an idea of Lewontin's, which is that the recipe for apple pie does not make apple pie: there are kinetics, which may or may not start, and even if it does, it takes time to become visible.
Sonigo makes a sketch for him, on a corner of the table, and explains that it is there
something quite trivial, which every biologist should know. Leibowitch is a doctor... He is an immunologist and curious, but well... This story of Eclipse, he takes it for granted... He explained it to people, I suppose. He explained it to me, too, just like that, on a corner of the table. Apparently, if I understood correctly, he and Sonigo had come to consider a 'research group on the Eclipse'. Well...
At first, it had nothing to do with me...
In search of the 'cure', in Siliciano mode
I was in a very different trip: I was doing, for myself, by myself, a manipulation that looks like Ananworanich's.
I did it long before... Which is understandable: she has to go through an ethics committee, recruit patients, etc. I, on the other hand, once I have the latency reversal cocktail in my medicine cabinet,
I go for it. She, on the other hand, can make
cash analytical interruptions, whereas I cannot. The FASEB-1 article gives me the idea to do it in a soft way: 6/7, 5/7, etc... I 'jumped' to 1/27, and even then, it was a mini-mini, maybe a simple blip, we'll never know...
Ananworanich, with his trial, has about 15 control patients, I do not... But I have the value of the literature, Davey's, as a reference. The FASEB-1 publication only mentions one 1/7 out of 48 patients, so we remain within the scope of Davey's work, which does not contradict Davey.
Davey publishes the table (that's good!).
He has a patient whose Eclipse lasts 47 days: this is exceptionally long! The good practice is to put aside this exceptional case
(outliar) to make his standard deviation calculation. If we exclude this patient, the average becomes 9 days and the standard deviation 2-3 days. With my 1/21 (or 24...) I am at M + 6 times Davey's standard deviation, thus recalculated. This is
much better than what Ananworanich could expect at least (say, a 3 standard deviation between the intervention arm and the control arm).
This was in 2015, way ahead of Ananworanich:
I was as excited as a louse! If I found a way to replicate, in a clinical trial, what I had done for myself, with my cocktail, I was then doing what Ananworanich would do long after... There is no French Ananworanich:
I couldn't find anyone. Still the same, maybe I didn't look where I should, and on that point too, I'm making progress.
It is important not to be mistaken about the nature and the extension of the Eclipse... The term 'Eclipse' is conceptually stronger, more inspiring than 'Rebound Delay'...
We'll see the rest
in a future post.
Weekly catch and 1/15
Well... Obviously it goes well for our colleague, who also does the 1/15. Leibowitch missed this one, it's a bit of a shame... At least when we are going to make noise, we are going to make it loud... In addition to the OMNIBVS conference cycle, I'm preparing one on 1/15. It's still more exciting than marrow transplantation!
Continuation of the LIVE COVID (21)
21/06/20: HIV, Intermittence: Charles-Edouard is back!
See here the testimony of the
Minister of Health of Qatar, on Aljezira...
When I first started talking about SARS-CoV-2
, I didn't think there would be such anti-HCQ hysteria. My motivation was to comment on the use of ARVs in this context. ARVs were not retained, and everyone's attention was on COVID. No need to talk about anything else. I spoke early on about HCQ/AT dual therapy (the so-called Raoult protocol), which I followed up on. The natural slope followed by Raoult (culture techniques, in vitro test, small primer test...) is based on a deep and well argued reflection. I did not know then that the world would split into 2 groups, the PRO-Raoult and the ANTI-Raoult. Having already used hydroxychloroquine, which I thought, in good faith, to be sold FREE, during my travels, I was shocked to see the outburst of nonsense about its supposed danger. This hysteria having reached the governance of things, it had become impossible to get some, whereas we all have more or less close relatives, who, even today, are exposed to a mortal risk. I explored the possible alternatives (Doxycycline with or without ATZ Atazanavir), with 2 subjects of satisfaction: 1- I have some, and 2- it is not forbidden by the disastrous Veran/Salomon decree, so we can get some. I had also supplied Zinc. The course of events could have led one to believe that I had become a Radio Raoult, as one could have believed that I was Radio Leibo.
This is not true. Radio Leibo exists, it is the Friends of ICCARRE, Radio Raoult, too, it is France-Soir. Reading France Soir (fed by Raoult and Co) made it unnecessary for me to comment.
Soon a classic HIV post: I delayed the publication of articles that deal with the history of L'Eclipse, Biktarvy, adjuvant techniques. Publishing an interesting topic in July/August, is the best way for it to go unnoticed! So that leaves us the leisure of an HIV article, at the end of June, and we start again in Sept, with Biktarvy (which starts its life of 1/7) and other exciting subjects. The COVID serial is not over! And HIV is back in its place!
06/22/20: The American Right and the Same Time
To understand the politicization and polarization of the debate in the US, it is interesting to look back at
this interview with Dr. Zelenko... by... Tudy Giuliani,
longtime Mayor of New York, now Trump's lawyer and influential (very right-wing) political commentator. In retrospect, there are points where Zelenko was a bit hasty... In terms of emergency medicine, the genesis of HCQ/AT/Zn is amusing... HCQ is thought to act as a pass-through for Zinc, a kind of undifferentiated insulin... That's something to remember...
denunciations, denunciations and revenge
The AVIA law, carried by a LREM parliamentarian, has been rejected, and rightly so, and we will have to remember this during the next parliamentary election...
I'm paying attention, because I have the feeling that the 'report' button is used a lot against me... (wrongly...)
The pharmacists are invited to denounce the prescriptions out of AMM. Indeed, a website dedicated to the denunciations has been created:
the 'mésange' project: the CRPV Network puts online a website that
allows ambulatory health professionals, in particular pharmacists, to
report anonymously situations of misuse. In fact, it is already enough for BigLabo & Co to call upon specialized companies to 1- publish false data (#LancetGate), 2- report unpleasant contents. In the USA, many sites have been disconnected (from twitter, from google monetization, etc), with sometimes a backtracking, undignified. This ranting system has been around since 2017... Chickadee, chickadee... A very nice name for a Raven...
Perronne under fire: According to
Le Parisien,
'on the unacceptable remarks of Professor Perronne, who directly accuses, on multiple occasions, without any restraint or medical or scientific evidence, medical colleagues of having refused treatment . This is regrettably false! Perronne has said without saying, he advances huge sums of money to the benefit of such and such, but without mentioning any name... It is regrettable... Even, at least, when he denounced the 'academic whores', he gave names (Steg, among others). As a result, it was Steg who sued him and was dismissed. Perronne, by saying too little, misleads his reader (I didn't get my 11 Euros worth) and doesn't allow verification. It is indeed very regrettable, I have already said it: Perronne is a lukewarm person: he does not go far enough, and it is necessary to clean the stables...
The journalist Olivier Truchot who hosted the professor on BFM TV. The latter continued:
'We had nearly 30,000 deaths in France. If we had used chloroquine for everyone, maybe 25,000 deaths would have been avoided.'. It will become Dreyfus, this case!
26/06/20: Perronne is attacked and Pialloux unveils his line of defense (lame)
Pialloux is the Raminogrobis of
PharisaicalVirology... He comes to the defense of La recherche, but what the hell La recherche
Pharisiennehas never released anything!!! Nothing!!! Someone please cite a work that has made progress and that is not a replica of another or that could not have been done without them. Nothing!
It's a total vacuity. But, they have an opinion that counts, not because they are 'experts' or efficient, but because they are ... in ... Paris. It's a real pain in the ass, and I'm only half surprised by the difficulties encountered at 190, which is backed by Tenon (i.e. Pialloux). That is to say, it's 190 that prescribes, which almost went bankrupt (oh my!) and it's Pialloux that pays... This is a position that he will try to defend at all costs. In HIV, Pialloux is a dwarf, but his prescriptive arm, the '190', is paying the price for the dubious reputation of his university attachment. It is a fiefdom, and,
the basic badger defends his burrow: it is human and... pitiful. The COVID affair will lead to a schism in virology, a lasting schism, and they will want to eliminate everything that is not for the benefit of profit.
an alternative to HCQ/AT: the hysteria will end, with thousands of deaths (including not too old people) and will leave great after-effects including a total loss of confidence in general medicine. So... I have been careful to describe that HCQ/AT is a proposal among others. The alternatives are of interest in the circumstances: since HCQ is forbidden, let's see if there is not better or not too bad.
Be careful: there is a lot of intoxication and falsified data...
Here is a Chinese study conducted in Bangladesh:
A comparative observational study on ivermectin-doxycycline and hydroxychloroquine-azithromycin treatment in COVID patients19
Speaking of badgers in front of their burrows: The
list published by France Soir of conflicts of interest among the Pied Nickelés (Argentés, we say...) is edifying! Here is the Top 13 list of the recent incomes paid by the pharmaceutical industry:
N°1. The Golden Palm goes to Pr François Raffi of Nantes. 541.729 €, including 52.812 € from Gilead. Is it a coincidence that the anonymous phone call to threaten Didier Raoult, if he persisted with hydroxychloroquine, came from the cell phone of the infectious diseases department of the University Hospital of Nantes, where François Raffi is head of department? Surely a pure coincidence. Finally, on COVID, he knew how to keep his nose clean... There were only shots to be taken and Raffi is a Merck-Boy, not too bankable at Gilead (ARVs, Tamiflu, remdesivir...)
N°2. Pr Jacques Reynes from Montpellier. 291,741 €, including 48,006 € from Gilead and 64,493 € from Abbvie. Bankable but without much power of nuisance, as far as we are concerned... Obviously, the intermittence in Montpellier, you can always run! And now you know why...
N°3. Pr Karine Lacombe from Paris - Saint Antoine. 212.209 €, including 28.412 € from Gilead. She is on the last step of the podium, but the main thing is to be there. Well... Saint Antoine has to clean up, that's for sure!!!
N°4. Pr Jean Michel Molina from Paris - Saint Louis. 184.034 €, including 26.950 € from Gilead and 22.864 € .
No surprise! Note that Molina and Raffi are the 2 'French' who 'sit' at the biggest organized Lobbying scam: the EACS... You don't risk to see the intermittence listed in the 'recommendations' of the EACS, that's for sure! And maybe that's why it's at Morlat's. (Morlat has already had a run-in with Raffi through newspapers; it was Raffi who bit first...)
another badger in the making: Nathan Peiffer-Smadja, baby doctor, he wants to eat at the rack (the biggest one, it is true: Bichat): he took a rake with
his petition without signatories. Will the COVID scandal have an impact on HIV Virology? Listening to Radio-Pialloux, on the defensive, indeed, it can move!
27/06/20: Comparing quequettes
Now we can finally compare. France as a whole: 103,681 hospitalized, 19,244 dead (18.6%). IHU Marseille: 673 hospitalized, 35 deaths (5.2%). With the Marseille rate, France would have had 5,392 deaths, i.e. 13,852 less. This is what the anti-chloroquine madness has cost...
06/28/20: Father Limpimpim's powder
Is it possible that the Raoult strategy is efficient without HCQ being efficient... The Raoult strategy is 'Test/Isolate/Treat', the Lacombre/Lescure strategy is 'Confiner/Doliprane/ICU/Crever' (and above all avoid contact with the city doctor). The Raoult strategy may well be effective with a clinically ineffective therapeutic proposal... Here is an example of a strategy said to be effective outside the clinic, but not in the clinic: circumcision. It is promoted in African countries for its marginal effectiveness on HIV transmission. Either... In the hospital, when someone comes to the clinic with HIV, it is too late to propose circumcision. For patients presenting to the hospital under the Lacombre/Lescure doctrine, 'Confiner/Doliprane/ICU/Crever', it is too late... And the effectiveness, in the clinic, of HCQ is illusory or very marginal.
This primate trial by CEA invites doubts about the clinical efficacy:
Hydroxychloroquine for the treatment and prophylaxis of SARS-CoV-2 infection in non-human primates. It doesn't seem to work in these small model monkeys, in particular not having any effect on the rate of decline in Viral Load. Even Raoult's study raises questions: His argument: 'I have no deaths (and very few ICU visits) in the HCQ/AT arm' ... What we see looks convincing, but
we see the same thing in the comparator arm.
Bottom tickets and Live/Covid: In the middle of a health crisis, coming with a heavy ticket was taking the risk of seeing it drowned. July and August, it's dead calm, until mid-September... So during the summer, 2-3 HIV posts with the live COVID/HIV, and in line of sight the resumption in September with the publication of a
any new strategy. Especially since Raoult gave us an alternative vision of the HCV treatment method: treat until the CV is at zero; confirm, then stop the treatment. This will cost much less than this expensive treatment (Sofosbuvir). It is the CV that should guide the dosage, not the cycle or the 'methodologized' experimentation...
I will explain, but I think now that we are making 2 mistakes:
the Cycle is a mistake, the monoprise is a mistake. We have a duty to be smart and the cycle is un-smart. With the arrival of Islatravir, to camp on 1/7 will quickly become untenable.
29/06/20: pranks and sexual abuse of dipteran (fly-fucking)
Dr. Rehbi, always practical and right on the money:
We will have to send the High Council of Health to be trained in Morocco! France has definitely lost its knowledge! Morocco: 6 deaths for 1 million inhabitants. France : 456 ! It is the red lantern in the world in terms of lethality!
Containment: a godsend for the Speti-Vaxx: Here is what happens: because of containment, many patients could not benefit from the 'care system', so we expect to find a peri-Covid over-mortality. Well... We understand that. Paradoxically, there is an unusual decrease in 'sudden infant death syndrome'. At the same time, an equally rapid decrease in infant vaccinations. This puts them on notice... Especially since vaccinations will resume with catch-up. If it is the same with 'cot death', then there will be a co-incidence (in the epistemological sense, as Raoult would say) in one direction but also in the other, and if the 'cot death' overshoots (i.e. exceeds its usual level), they will have thought they had raised a hare. With the epidemic of epidemiologists, it will give them work!
The vaccination obligation having destroyed all hope of comparing morbidity and mortality between vaccinated and unvaccinated children in developed countries, it is Covid that has opened a 'comparative window of opportunity' that every scientist, every doctor and every parent must seize in the weeks to come: it would be possible to draw strong arguments to dare to revise the new vaccination practices imposed since 2018.
06/30/20: The accounts of the social security system are fudged in advance
Remdesivir at 3 Euros for 5 days and 5000 for 10 days. With the government having pre-ordered doses, even though the episode is over and Remdesivir has not proven even the slightest bit effective. This will impact the public accounts!
The social security accounts, that concerns us all. What is given to Gilead, in pure loss, (think of Tamiflu that the French army has stocked and that is strictly useless!)
every year (because it's a stock that must be rotated, every year, what is lost goes to the trash, to the garbage). In the meantime, we are closing non-delocalizable care structures? I'm preparing something about
the cost footprint of HIV. I think that young people, who pay little or no social security contributions, who take useless drugs at 40-50 Eu./day,
because they are worth it (the young people, not the drugs, in the mode of 'The Ideal because I'm worth it') are abusing, and I'm fed up with contributing, contributing, pissing in an endless hole violin.
The myth of the Super Contaminator: it's a myth... The SARS 'Super Contaminator' infected 100 people, mostly on the floor of his hotel room. He was sick, he gets out of the elevator, he vomits. A huge amount of virus is expelled: it is the vomiting that creates the remarkable event, not a characteristic of the individual. A guy goes to a Berlin nightclub, and 25 people get his virus... Yes... But for the rest of the day, he didn't infect anyone in particular: it's the circumstances that give him a Warholian 15 minutes!
Who will sign the state order for Remdesivir... One wonders if there will even be zoteurs to sign the Discovery article. We laugh in advance!
01/07/20: The chronically ill, under HCQ, were protected...
Exactly the question we were asking, or would have asked, if one or more ARVs had worked. If an ARV, let's say ATV, works, then we say yay! Of course, there is the question of intermittence and going back, temporarily, to a more steady pace. The other question concerns patients using HCQ on a daily basis (obviously they don't drop like flies...): are they protected against SARS-CoV-2? This Portuguese study addresses the question
Chronic hydroxychloroquine treatment and SARS-CoV-2 infection. Well... The Portuguese did well against Covid, so they have few cases. No matter:
Sus à Perronne, and also Raffi
We were surprised that Raffi is quite calm (don't worry, he will surely come back to the charge!)... Yes, we were surprised... And when you can read between the lines... This
article asks the right questions: Threats against Didier Raoult, conflicts of interest... the infectiology department of the Nantes University Hospital in turmoil:
05/07/20: The Korean example...
Pieer Amblard, a CNRS researcher, based in Korea, gives us a first hand report, in his blog, on Mediapart:
How did Korean democracy tame Covid-19? Here is an excerpt of
his contribution (source):
What I still don't understand is why the HCQ ban is maintained... If there is one thing that is not very nasty and multipurpose, it is Nivaquine. Until mid-January, you could walk into a pharmacy, ask for plaquenil and walk out with it... The inclusion of Plaquenil in List 2 is worth looking into: the ANSM does not wake up one morning and ask for inclusion in List 2 overnight: it is due to
harmonization with drugs of the same class. It is therefore an administrative decision, with no other basis than the fact that the drug belongs to a class. We remember that in Mediator, it is the fact of not identifying the molecule to a class, which 'protected' it. It is quite surprising... In this respect, in which class does Ritonavir belong?
Gaudin, happy with Marseille!
07/08/20: The truth finally comes out
Raoult tells us that the truth always comes out... And that's not true... We can go back to his last video and replace Hydroxychloroquine with Intermittence, it sounds the same. Especially the censorship and worse, the self-censorship. Miss Lacombe has become Personna non Grata in Guyana, and there is reason to believe that her Gileadesque bankability has plunged... And now... Let's see if Gilead will want to find her. Let them give her a real work contract and things will be clear!
A new EXPLOITABLE proof of the Eclipse: While our mind was elsewhere, our enemies point to a
new publication that shows exactly what we are interested in. Interpreting it their way is a
pointless distraction: what we need to do is look at the Dônnées, nothing but the Dônnées, all the Dônnées. News about the Eclipse will be our next post!
What has changed and what changes our strategic position: there are three events that change the conditions for the future: the death of Jacques Leibowitch, the success of the second 1/15, the advance of Islatravir. I am making proposals that are new, and that take into account these 3 modifiers.
10/07/20: Leibowitch, the compromise and the compromise
If you want to do something collectively, you have to negotiate an acceptable compromise. It's political. People interested in the OMNIBVS project came together. More or less interested. More or less fearful, by their nature/function, it is not objective. So we make a proposal, and Leibowitch rejects it because it seems to him too ambitious to be accepted. So be it. Then, one thing leading to another, from efarouchement to efourachement, we go from 1/7 to 2/7 and then to 3/7, and fortunately 4/7 is already approved, otherwise, from compromise to compromise, we would have found ourselves at 6/7!!!
Leibowitch denounced the compromise of the 'Masters of Chairs'
(without ever naming them, it's like pissing in a violin), because that's what an undue compromise looks like, but not undue-striel. By dint of making BigPharma-compatible compromises, one is suspected of compromise. Needless to say, if Truchis wants to succeed Perronne, it is possible, but not if the external pressure (Hirsh, Gilead, Lacombe) is such that his position is at stake. An example? Simple: FOTO (the 5/7) was developed by Cal Cohen. Did Cohen move up? No! He was overhauled by Paul SAX, more Co-Labo, you die. The position, of poor XXX, at Bichat, is untenable, but it must be held. Hard... Hard...
Leibowitch wanted recognition through a clinical trial of regulatory registration. Can we prove him wrong? No! because the clinical trial took place. In fact 2 clinical trials... Because Delfraissy is both the facilitator and the blocker: one foot on the accelerator and the hand on the handbrake, that's all Delfraissy's interpersonal skills, and his only power... One could think that the industry has to feel relieved about the death of Leibowitch. At first sight, yes... It is in their interest. But also ours. Because Leibowitch, contrary to his rough image, was open to a compromise.
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