160

This was originally published here, in French (link).
We provide this translation for your convenience. Practical aspects may differ where you live.



The Eclipse is getting longer with the (new) INIs
and LIVE COVID...

By Charles-Edouard!

DTG changes everything... and nothing at the same time

Let's make the hypothesis A that the 'modern' administration, i.e. earlier and with DTG (or BIC), which are at the top of the first-line recommendation, gives a significant possibility to control the virus. Indeed, Hocqueloux has stated, somewhat naively, that to hope to cure one would have to treat earlier, stronger. You and I, we are already in the treatment and, for us, the project of treating earlier does not concern us. It doesn't matter... To test hypothesis A, we take 'modern' patients, in the sense of A, treated early with a second generation INI. We stop the treatment and see if one of the patients controls the virus. And we compare... Compare to what? To the history... That is to say, the period when the treatment was deferred somewhat, and when the first generation INIs did not exist. Nothing better, therefore, as a comparator than Davey's series, which dates from 1999, that is to say 2-3 years after the arrival of triple therapy... My table with the published eclipses is here: Time on the rebound: I finally see you!

&nbspPt.	T50
1	5,4
2	3,8
3	8,9
4	11
5	47
6	8,4
7	9
8	9,8
9	5,6
10	12
11	9,8
12	11
13	8
14	15
15	13
16	12
17	7
18	7

Historical values (Davey 1999)

source: jstor.org/stable/121215.
In Davey's series, the presence of an Eclipse at 47 days distorts the mean (11) and standard deviation (9) to the point of suggesting that there are statistically negative values. Removing this exceptionally long Eclipse patient gives a mean of 9.2, a median of 9 and a standard deviation of 3, which is already more reasonable.

With these corrected values, the number of patients with an eclipse of less than 7 d. (6 or less) is 16%. With Davey's calculation, we would find 29%. In clinical intermittence, ICCARRE and Faucy find only 2-3%. For the calculation we use onlinestatbook.

The 'classic' risk is lower than it seems

The first error consists in taking an exceptionally high value (47 days), which is a value to be excluded(outlier). The second is to take a statistical model, of Gauss, which is symmetrical, whereas the Eclipse is not symmetrical: there is no negative Eclipse. When the series is temporal, stochastic, it is appropriate to use a Poisson model. But well... Let's pretend, since what we are interested in is an order of magnitude. It is obvious that a patient with an Eclipse of 3.8 days cannot hope to achieve 1/21... In the classical view, in Davey's time, one can have an appreciation of risk such that even the modest 4/7 shows a statistical risk.

Here is the risk calculated in a very primitive way, without incorporating any risk factors. In 4/7, with Davey's figures, we find 19% of patients at risk of failure. With the corrected figures, we find 2%, and, in the clinic, we find very few (e.g. zero intrinsic failures in ANRS-4D). So the risk is overestimated. Let's say that this error of evaluation, made by many 'specialists', and which ICCARRE denies, is, let's say, forgivable a priori. A Gileaolatre could have used this putative risk to try to block ANRS-4D, a priori. If we look closely, it does not hold, but well... That's the past.

What Davey claims, Leibowitch denies

According to Davey, in whom the shortest Eclipse is 4 days, doing the 5/7 (FOTO - Dr. Cal Cohen) is possible, but in Davey 'Classic', the expected failure rate to do 2/7 'direct' is 25%. Besides, there has not been a Truchis, a Leibo or anyone else to attempt the 2/7'direct'. In light of Davey's dônnées on the Eclipse, the 2/7 (or even 1/7) would be unreasonable. Except that the 2/7 have gone through 3/7, validated: they no longer carry the risk of 3/7... The risk to fail, in progressive method is R(2/7)-R/3/7), that is 25% -21% = 4%; in recalculated Davey risk, it is 5%.

As Leibowitch has shown that it is possible to compensate for a negative event (virological failure) by returning to 7/7 immediately, the risk is doubly minimal; it is less than 5% and the negative consequence of the risk (virological failure) is without prejudice, since we know how to compensate. On a personal level, one could find it bad to fail at 2/7, but then, one would have to make up one's mind...

In practice, Leibo has a much lower failure rate, because it also plays a little on the pharmacokinetic window, by using preferentially and almost exclusively NVP(or at least EFV). In this perspective, the 1/15 is unthinkableThe use of NVP, with the possible exception of a few exceptional cases.

With the New Eclipse everything will change!

With the new Eclipse, this will change, and even more so with the arrival of Islatravir.

Live COVID

Multi-therapy: For the moment the concept remains a bit vague, but this article from Le Collectif Citoyen for FranceSoir (which no one doubts is brilliantly inspired) Covid-19: What is the standard treatment? Does it include hydroxychloroquine? opens a new era: that of a cocktail/care pathway where HCQ would only be an option. The hysteria around HCQ (and the prohibition for pharmacists to dispense it, but not for doctors to prescribe it, yes, yes, this is the French ridiculousness: Liberation: Covid-19: is the dispensing of hydroxychloroquine authorized again?) is such that an alternative must be considered. For myself and my relatives, I will not remain without considering anything.

And to make this strategy my own: 'treat the patients who present themselves as well as possible. That means testing them, assessing the status of those who are positive, and treating them with available therapies. ' ( source Covid-19 - Interview with the man at the heart of the controversy: Didier Raoult)

My available tools: Atazanavir, Doxycycline, Zinc. No PCR, but we can access it if needed, and thus initiate a treatment and interrupt it if the PCR comes back negative. The very vaccine-oriented B. Gates declared that the PCR, if the results are not quick, is useless... Yes, it does to interrupt a treatment taken blindly. I don't really care whether it works or not to the point of recommending it or not, which is not my purpose. I treat, and not with Doliprane!

In the news... As the water flows

La pitie salpetriere publishes its results in 5/7 and 4/7, under INIs, Efficacy of intermittent short cycles of integrase inhibitor-based maintenance in virologically suppressed HIV patients. It works! What did you expect?

The genius of French

I find this video, anachronistic, in the air of time...

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good weekend, good stuffing and not too many meds ... Huh?

159

This was originally published here, in French (link).
We provide this translation for your convenience. Practical aspects may differ where you live.



A New Eclipse has appeared
Followed by LIVE COVID

By Charles-Edouard!

Lescure is the anti-medicine, the anti-science, the anti us: he is our enemy(source), and his delay in publishing the deleterious effects of Remdesivir makes us even more suspicious.

We let JCM comment:

The doctor's concealment of the real causes of the changes in recommendation is amazing.
The problem with Lescure is that he is like Gamelin, he only acts when he is sure, and only attacks when he is in the last line. [...] So, Mr. Lescure, Iccarre or not Iccarre? The problem is that even if Iccarre doesn't work well, when we rather suspect that it does, no one really wants to wait and even less to follow the prudent (and especially prudent for himself) advice of Dr. Lescure.

A New Eclipse has appeared: you had not observed it!

Here is how the case is presented. A new drug appears, more 'powerful' than the others, with opportunities in terms of eradication. So we try... It doesn't eat bread and it keeps you busy. We put a good handful of patients on a promising combo (usually quite strong) and we see if this super-regimen favors PTC: Post-treatment Controllers. With a bit of luck, we may succeed, occasionally, since by treating everyone, without distinction, we also treat the 1% who naturally control. We would not be surprised to find 1 or 2 of them, by chance. There may be such a case here (an experimental treatment may have eliminated HIV in humans, according to doctors), but that is not our topic today. In the study we are interested in, we are not going to find any... Lack of luck, small number of patients... It doesn't matter. The patients take something, we stop, we do the biological follow-up (the PCR... Biological follow-up, there is nothing medical about itwe can do the same thing with mice, bats or pangolins.... No luck (well, yes... it suits the Gileadolatres), it does not work! So the merchants of variety articles and trinkets, at 1000 eu./month, still, are ecstatic: we can't stop the treatment. Unlike the profiteers of the situation, I would like it to work... Don't you? And what I tried, with the infinitesimal hope that it might work, didn't work. Close the bench, the Charles-Edouard's is a lot of bullshit, Fake-News, Public Danger... Quick, let's call Miss Avia and her sulphate machine.

The rebound takes place, relentlessly, but not immediately

Leibowitch never said that the treatment could be stopped. Never... The argument is that the rebound takes place, relentlessly, but not immediately. In a country that has eradicated the virus, one can lift the containment and live in fear of a second wave. Not a great method. We can, alternatively, lift the confinement of the active during the week, to confine the weekends only (Castaner would have loved that against the GJ). There are alternatives to stupid diktats... Second wave or not, everyone sees that the delay to the second wave, gives respite, and that we must take advantage of it!!!. Otherwise, it becomes wearing...

Faucy and Chun back on the rebound and ... The Eclipse

Michael C Sneller, under the supervision of Anthony S Fauci and Tae-Wook Chun publishes Kinetics of plasma HIV rebound in the era of modern antiretroviral therapy.

The conclusion is unwarranted, but the raw data published

The conclusion does not match the body of the article, which is not surprising with Faucy-la-couleuvre, but the data is there, is recent and usable. It has taken years and years to document for 'ethics' committees that analytical interruption is safe and can be used to view/verify/validate any intervention. There has never been any danger, but here it is the American Lacombe/Pialloux/Hydroxychloroquine who are blocking any attempt at a clinical trial. In France, they succeed perfectly since there has never been a single clinical trial in reservoir/remission research. Never.... But in the USA, there are some... And they are legitimate because the US does research on the reservoir and ATIs (Analytical Treatment Interruptions) are considered acceptable there.(In France, the question doesn't even arise, since there is no idea to test). The objective enemies of research, the American Gileadolatres, argue that what was tolerable yesterday, might not be tolerable anymore with the new caviar drugs. It's stupid, but wasting time is a classic tactic.

So Faucy & Co want to show that no, it's the same as always! That's the conclusion they wanted to reach. In order to do this, we need data and we need to publish them, and here, these data enlighten us, once again, about the Eclipse. Now, comparing the Eclipses of the past and the modern ones we see a very important change... To see this, we must take the old and newly published eclipse data...

Well... We'll see it next time...

13/07: The Live COVID resumes

We resume the COVID live, because, there are many things that concern us... In the meantime, Politico has published an interesting opinion: Hydroxychloroquine and remdésivir: small reference points to try to see more clearly in the 'match' of treatments against the coronavirus

07/15: Double co-incidence is evidence

France Soir: Covid-19: hydroxychloroquine works, an irrefutable proof. The argument is simple: Switzerland normally authorizes HCQ (as a reminder, the American FDA acts as an agency for Switzerland, which pays it a share). It's going pretty well. Following @LancetGate (we are still waiting for the trial of the forgers...), Switzerland is infected by the Virus of Prohibition: it bans. 13 days later, the mortality rate (based on solved cases) climbs, climbs. In the meantime, Switzerland reauthorizes, and 13 days later the mortality rate returns to normal.

If you want to avoid dying, you have to take HCQ 13 days before ... (NOT) die... Macron, him, tells us that he would not take it (we don't care... He is the boss at Véran, so discredited...) ... Wait until Brigitte catches it (the virus, not the Macron), you'll see that he'll change his mind quickly... If not, too bad for him...

The genius of French

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overmedication is an opportunity if you know how to use it!