142

This was originally published here, in French (link).
We provide this translation for your convenience. Practical aspects may differ where you live.



Coronavirus, HIV, ARVs, intermittence...(4) and the disappearance of J. Leibowitch

By Charles-Edouard!

On 08/03/20: Korea, champion of cumulative prevalence, Italy in its wake

Italy (and soon France?) will soon take the lead, in terms of (cumulative) prevalence (here, cumulative cases per population, x per million)
The number of 'critical' cases, among which are the deaths, is particularly high in Italy.

On 06/03/20: Dr Jacques Leibowitch passed away

You can find one of his last contributions, in video, here. In Sept. 2018, he had very officially 'said goodbye to the medical scene'. I reported it here. Age and/or illness justified his retirement. Obviously, this left me quite alone on the front line. Certainly, more alone today than yesterday, with the assurance that there will be many of us soon.

We will have to try tobe worthy of the legacy. At the request of many readers, I will make a post on this subject soon. To be continued...

Coronavirus, HIV: the Live Continue below...

Graphic update by worldometers (based on Chinese propaganda).

05/03/20: Apparent mortality rises

For a long time the official publications were sticking to a mortality of 2.1%. Now that the number of daily cases is decreasing (approx. 160/day), we are in the process of eliminating the stock of potential deaths, those who are in a serious condition (issime), among the 25.000 cases still considered as 'serious'. Let's say 1000 (because on this point, it seems to be getting better too): 4000 out of 80.000 is 5%. A bit lower than my calculation of last week (7%), but undoubtedly more than the current 3000/80.000 or 3,75% and the 2,1% claimed at the beginning. This is very surprising because the mortality outside Hubei is much lower! This would support the idea that Chinese doctors are a little more efficient with time, i.e. that they improve their therapy

It is not good to be a Chinese alarmist: The famous Dr Li Wenliang, who put everyone on alert, was reprimanded like a rotten fish from Wuhan, and, moreover, he died! Poor man... Lesson to be learned...

On 04/03/20: Remedy against the @PandaVirus

Here is a first list of drug candidates for the treatment of @PandaVirus: Favipiravir, Remdesivir, Chloroquine, Ribavirin, Umifenovir, Lopinavir, Hydroxychloroquine, Ritonavir(video highly recommended). Another list is circulating: atazanavir followed by Efavirenz , ritonavir, and dolutegravir(source: here), and a few others, which puts Biktegravir (an avatar of Dolutegravir) on the list.

What does this have to do with us? First of all, if there is a cure, the soufflet will drop a bit... If that cure is not a common ARV, well, that will be interesting to know, but not much more. If it is an ARV, then the market for ARVs will expand to the extent of the critical cases (about 10,000 for the moment) and the health workers who will want to have it on hand for themselves, not to mention the non-critical cases (about 100,000 people, for the moment) (counting a month's worth of treatment) that we will want to treat in order to curb the epidemic. In France, there is hardly any stock of Liponavir for 3-5000 people (continuous treatment).

At first glance, this is still feasible, but the situation could grow beyond what is imaginable.
In another example, a leading reseller of primers and amino acids for PCR warns its customers: 'our teams are doing their utmost to increase stocks and we invite you to do the same to avoid the effect of any delay in delivery; your usual discounts are suspended until further notice'.

Tik-Tok Vietnam: super fun here is the short version and the long animated version

On 03/03/20: #IAmNotAChineseVirus

The Obama administration has banned research on the virulence of pathogens, rightly believing that it is too dangerous. Well... The Chinese scientists, who were working on it, in the USA, put their hands in their pockets, their underpants in their suitcases and went back... home... They are the same ones who, today, publish a paper to accredit that the Wuhan virus (@PandaVirus) comes naturally from a natural 'reservoir' of bats, which would have come en masse to shop at the market, 900 km away... And that the virus is a very close relative of another one whose characteristics have been published (by them), publication that took place well after the rather successful virus release.

For the moment, this does not matter to the Chinese authorities... A few million thousand Chinese more or less... But the Iranians will be a bit more careful, if one of their Ayatollahs goes there, which they are expecting. So, #cestpouscesthepangolins, we have not finished hearing about it!

On the ARV front, nothing is moving. The lack of test kits is glaring, including in the US. It is urgent to replace PCR by a simpler, faster test, but it is not yet ready... We should see an outbreak of mortality in South Korea, unless...

Chloroquinine: I subscribed to the Youtube channel of IHU Méditerranée-Infection, because it is suddenly a light in the night. The use of Chloroquinine has been included by the Chinese in their treatment protocol... To be continued... To be continued...

On 02/03/20: Silk Road and @PandaVirus

Here's what A. Faucy says about it:

Seeing the shortages and panics in supermarkets, we can envisage that if a known molecule seems effective then it will be in short supply. It would only be because health care workers will want to protect themselves first, which is quite understandable. (a fifth doctor died in Wuhan)

Iran has just forbidden the Friday prayer... As if everything is possible...