158

This was originally published here, in French (link).
We provide this translation for your convenience. Practical aspects may differ where you live.



Eclipse: historical perspective (1)

LIVE COVID follow-up (21)

By Charles-Edouard!

Seen on the web, the percolation of our ideas, the breaking of the dam

Having an explanatory theory is a door to strategic intelligence. It is not necessary to be smart, but it is not forbidden either!

History of Eclipse: In the beginning: Fauci and Davey vs Fischer

The discovery of the 1/7 was made against a background of seemingly contradictory data: on the one hand, FAUCI had shown the feasibility of a 7/14, in a pre-study in the USA, and then showed, in a clinical trial that had nothing clinical about it, that the 5/7 was better than the 7/7 and the 7/14. The 'clinical' trial, in Uganda, had nothing to guarantee that the patients, once back home, would follow the instructions to the letter. The test favored cheatingThe 'clinical trial' in Uganda had nothing to guarantee that the patients, once they returned home, would follow the instructions to the letter: very toxic drugs were prescribed to Africans, who, moreover, had to pay for them out of their own pockets, at a high price. Of course, everyone did as they could, and swore they followed the protocol... One can imagine...

Intermittency is incompatible with non-adherence, and is not the solution! There are still clinicians who believe that proposing 4/7 to a non-observant person will solve this problem: it is false! And all the more false as the drugs have a better tolerability.

Free translation in French of the original document(www.tinyurl.com/HPC-FAUCY), is here. This translation is placed in the complete file.

In 1999, Davey (and Fauci) published a study in which he announced that the average rebound time was 9 days with a standard deviation of 11 days: this reading of the table is an error, as we shall see later. This reading of the table is an error, we will come back to it. It is as much to say that a non-negligible percentage of patients had a negative Eclipse. First of all, this is a misuse of the Gaussian curve. This will be explained later under the name ofDavey's Statistical Error... Davey wrote: '[rebound] most often beginning during weeks 2-3 after stopping antiretroviral therapy.'

Fisher was more alarmist, finding patients (about 25%) with rebound between 4 and 7 days.

Here is the story of the Eclipse as I know it.

Relative to the prevailing dogma, the 1/7 puts you on your ass. Leibowitch explained it more or less to his patients and colleagues. R. Cross reported how he understood, by his own admission, not so much. Seen from the patient's point of view, it works and why it works doesn't really matter. In the Darwinian process, an incremental development brings out more advantageous configurations: one must therefore roll the die many times and observe. De Truchis could say of Leibowitch that he was a bit of a gambler...

Leibowitch turned to Pierre Sonigo, who is a little genius in the biology of HIV, and who was the first to decode its genome (which makes it possible to do PCR, which in practice you call CV). Sonigo wrote a book with Jean-Jacques Kupiec that popularized an idea of Lewontin's, which is that the recipe for apple pie does not make apple pie: there are kinetics, which may or may not start, and even if it does, it takes time to become visible.

Sonigo makes a sketch for him, on a corner of the table, and explains that it is there something quite trivial, which every biologist should know. Leibowitch is a doctor... He is an immunologist and curious, but well... This story of Eclipse, he takes it for granted... He explained it to people, I suppose. He explained it to me, too, just like that, on a corner of the table. Apparently, if I understood correctly, he and Sonigo had come to consider a 'research group on the Eclipse'. Well... At first, it had nothing to do with me...

In search of the 'cure', in Siliciano mode

I was in a very different trip: I was doing, for myself, by myself, a manipulation that looks like Ananworanich's. I did it long before... Which is understandable: she has to go through an ethics committee, recruit patients, etc. I, on the other hand, once I have the latency reversal cocktail in my medicine cabinet, I go for it. She, on the other hand, can make cash analytical interruptions, whereas I cannot. The FASEB-1 article gives me the idea to do it in a soft way: 6/7, 5/7, etc... I 'jumped' to 1/27, and even then, it was a mini-mini, maybe a simple blip, we'll never know...

Ananworanich, with his trial, has about 15 control patients, I do not... But I have the value of the literature, Davey's, as a reference. The FASEB-1 publication only mentions one 1/7 out of 48 patients, so we remain within the scope of Davey's work, which does not contradict Davey.
Davey publishes the table (that's good!).
He has a patient whose Eclipse lasts 47 days: this is exceptionally long! The good practice is to put aside this exceptional case(outliar) to make his standard deviation calculation. If we exclude this patient, the average becomes 9 days and the standard deviation 2-3 days. With my 1/21 (or 24...) I am at M + 6 times Davey's standard deviation, thus recalculated. This is much better than what Ananworanich could expect at least (say, a 3 standard deviation between the intervention arm and the control arm).

This was in 2015, way ahead of Ananworanich: I was as excited as a louse! If I found a way to replicate, in a clinical trial, what I had done for myself, with my cocktail, I was then doing what Ananworanich would do long after... There is no French Ananworanich: I couldn't find anyone. Still the same, maybe I didn't look where I should, and on that point too, I'm making progress.

It is important not to be mistaken about the nature and the extension of the Eclipse... The term 'Eclipse' is conceptually stronger, more inspiring than 'Rebound Delay'...

We'll see the rest in a future post.

Weekly catch and 1/15

Well... Obviously it goes well for our colleague, who also does the 1/15. Leibowitch missed this one, it's a bit of a shame... At least when we are going to make noise, we are going to make it loud... In addition to the OMNIBVS conference cycle, I'm preparing one on 1/15. It's still more exciting than marrow transplantation!

Continuation of the LIVE COVID (21)

21/06/20: HIV, Intermittence: Charles-Edouard is back!

See here the testimony of the Minister of Health of Qatar, on Aljezira...

When I first started talking about SARS-CoV-2 , I didn't think there would be such anti-HCQ hysteria. My motivation was to comment on the use of ARVs in this context. ARVs were not retained, and everyone's attention was on COVID. No need to talk about anything else. I spoke early on about HCQ/AT dual therapy (the so-called Raoult protocol), which I followed up on. The natural slope followed by Raoult (culture techniques, in vitro test, small primer test...) is based on a deep and well argued reflection. I did not know then that the world would split into 2 groups, the PRO-Raoult and the ANTI-Raoult. Having already used hydroxychloroquine, which I thought, in good faith, to be sold FREE, during my travels, I was shocked to see the outburst of nonsense about its supposed danger. This hysteria having reached the governance of things, it had become impossible to get some, whereas we all have more or less close relatives, who, even today, are exposed to a mortal risk. I explored the possible alternatives (Doxycycline with or without ATZ Atazanavir), with 2 subjects of satisfaction: 1- I have some, and 2- it is not forbidden by the disastrous Veran/Salomon decree, so we can get some. I had also supplied Zinc. The course of events could have led one to believe that I had become a Radio Raoult, as one could have believed that I was Radio Leibo. This is not true. Radio Leibo exists, it is the Friends of ICCARRE, Radio Raoult, too, it is France-Soir. Reading France Soir (fed by Raoult and Co) made it unnecessary for me to comment.

Soon a classic HIV post: I delayed the publication of articles that deal with the history of L'Eclipse, Biktarvy, adjuvant techniques. Publishing an interesting topic in July/August, is the best way for it to go unnoticed! So that leaves us the leisure of an HIV article, at the end of June, and we start again in Sept, with Biktarvy (which starts its life of 1/7) and other exciting subjects. The COVID serial is not over! And HIV is back in its place!

06/22/20: The American Right and the Same Time

To understand the politicization and polarization of the debate in the US, it is interesting to look back at this interview with Dr. Zelenko... by... Tudy Giuliani, longtime Mayor of New York, now Trump's lawyer and influential (very right-wing) political commentator. In retrospect, there are points where Zelenko was a bit hasty... In terms of emergency medicine, the genesis of HCQ/AT/Zn is amusing... HCQ is thought to act as a pass-through for Zinc, a kind of undifferentiated insulin... That's something to remember...

denunciations, denunciations and revenge The AVIA law, carried by a LREM parliamentarian, has been rejected, and rightly so, and we will have to remember this during the next parliamentary election... I'm paying attention, because I have the feeling that the 'report' button is used a lot against me... (wrongly...)

The pharmacists are invited to denounce the prescriptions out of AMM. Indeed, a website dedicated to the denunciations has been created: the 'mésange' project: the CRPV Network puts online a website that allows ambulatory health professionals, in particular pharmacists, to report anonymously situations of misuse. In fact, it is already enough for BigLabo & Co to call upon specialized companies to 1- publish false data (#LancetGate), 2- report unpleasant contents. In the USA, many sites have been disconnected (from twitter, from google monetization, etc), with sometimes a backtracking, undignified. This ranting system has been around since 2017... Chickadee, chickadee... A very nice name for a Raven...

Perronne under fire: According to Le Parisien,'on the unacceptable remarks of Professor Perronne, who directly accuses, on multiple occasions, without any restraint or medical or scientific evidence, medical colleagues of having refused treatment . This is regrettably false! Perronne has said without saying, he advances huge sums of money to the benefit of such and such, but without mentioning any name... It is regrettable... Even, at least, when he denounced the 'academic whores', he gave names (Steg, among others). As a result, it was Steg who sued him and was dismissed. Perronne, by saying too little, misleads his reader (I didn't get my 11 Euros worth) and doesn't allow verification. It is indeed very regrettable, I have already said it: Perronne is a lukewarm person: he does not go far enough, and it is necessary to clean the stables...

The journalist Olivier Truchot who hosted the professor on BFM TV. The latter continued: 'We had nearly 30,000 deaths in France. If we had used chloroquine for everyone, maybe 25,000 deaths would have been avoided.'. It will become Dreyfus, this case!

26/06/20: Perronne is attacked and Pialloux unveils his line of defense (lame)

Pialloux is the Raminogrobis ofPharisaicalVirology... He comes to the defense of La recherche, but what the hell La recherchePharisiennehas never released anything!!! Nothing!!! Someone please cite a work that has made progress and that is not a replica of another or that could not have been done without them. Nothing! It's a total vacuity. But, they have an opinion that counts, not because they are 'experts' or efficient, but because they are ... in ... Paris. It's a real pain in the ass, and I'm only half surprised by the difficulties encountered at 190, which is backed by Tenon (i.e. Pialloux). That is to say, it's 190 that prescribes, which almost went bankrupt (oh my!) and it's Pialloux that pays... This is a position that he will try to defend at all costs. In HIV, Pialloux is a dwarf, but his prescriptive arm, the '190', is paying the price for the dubious reputation of his university attachment. It is a fiefdom, and, the basic badger defends his burrow: it is human and... pitiful. The COVID affair will lead to a schism in virology, a lasting schism, and they will want to eliminate everything that is not for the benefit of profit.

an alternative to HCQ/AT: the hysteria will end, with thousands of deaths (including not too old people) and will leave great after-effects including a total loss of confidence in general medicine. So... I have been careful to describe that HCQ/AT is a proposal among others. The alternatives are of interest in the circumstances: since HCQ is forbidden, let's see if there is not better or not too bad. Be careful: there is a lot of intoxication and falsified data... Here is a Chinese study conducted in Bangladesh: A comparative observational study on ivermectin-doxycycline and hydroxychloroquine-azithromycin treatment in COVID patients19

Speaking of badgers in front of their burrows: The list published by France Soir of conflicts of interest among the Pied Nickelés (Argentés, we say...) is edifying! Here is the Top 13 list of the recent incomes paid by the pharmaceutical industry:
N°1. The Golden Palm goes to Pr François Raffi of Nantes. 541.729 €, including 52.812 € from Gilead. Is it a coincidence that the anonymous phone call to threaten Didier Raoult, if he persisted with hydroxychloroquine, came from the cell phone of the infectious diseases department of the University Hospital of Nantes, where François Raffi is head of department? Surely a pure coincidence. Finally, on COVID, he knew how to keep his nose clean... There were only shots to be taken and Raffi is a Merck-Boy, not too bankable at Gilead (ARVs, Tamiflu, remdesivir...)
N°2. Pr Jacques Reynes from Montpellier. 291,741 €, including 48,006 € from Gilead and 64,493 € from Abbvie. Bankable but without much power of nuisance, as far as we are concerned... Obviously, the intermittence in Montpellier, you can always run! And now you know why...
N°3. Pr Karine Lacombe from Paris - Saint Antoine. 212.209 €, including 28.412 € from Gilead. She is on the last step of the podium, but the main thing is to be there. Well... Saint Antoine has to clean up, that's for sure!!!
N°4. Pr Jean Michel Molina from Paris - Saint Louis. 184.034 €, including 26.950 € from Gilead and 22.864 € . No surprise! Note that Molina and Raffi are the 2 'French' who 'sit' at the biggest organized Lobbying scam: the EACS... You don't risk to see the intermittence listed in the 'recommendations' of the EACS, that's for sure! And maybe that's why it's at Morlat's. (Morlat has already had a run-in with Raffi through newspapers; it was Raffi who bit first...)

another badger in the making: Nathan Peiffer-Smadja, baby doctor, he wants to eat at the rack (the biggest one, it is true: Bichat): he took a rake with his petition without signatories. Will the COVID scandal have an impact on HIV Virology? Listening to Radio-Pialloux, on the defensive, indeed, it can move!

27/06/20: Comparing quequettes

Now we can finally compare. France as a whole: 103,681 hospitalized, 19,244 dead (18.6%). IHU Marseille: 673 hospitalized, 35 deaths (5.2%). With the Marseille rate, France would have had 5,392 deaths, i.e. 13,852 less. This is what the anti-chloroquine madness has cost...

06/28/20: Father Limpimpim's powder

Is it possible that the Raoult strategy is efficient without HCQ being efficient... The Raoult strategy is 'Test/Isolate/Treat', the Lacombre/Lescure strategy is 'Confiner/Doliprane/ICU/Crever' (and above all avoid contact with the city doctor). The Raoult strategy may well be effective with a clinically ineffective therapeutic proposal... Here is an example of a strategy said to be effective outside the clinic, but not in the clinic: circumcision. It is promoted in African countries for its marginal effectiveness on HIV transmission. Either... In the hospital, when someone comes to the clinic with HIV, it is too late to propose circumcision. For patients presenting to the hospital under the Lacombre/Lescure doctrine, 'Confiner/Doliprane/ICU/Crever', it is too late... And the effectiveness, in the clinic, of HCQ is illusory or very marginal.

This primate trial by CEA invites doubts about the clinical efficacy: Hydroxychloroquine for the treatment and prophylaxis of SARS-CoV-2 infection in non-human primates. It doesn't seem to work in these small model monkeys, in particular not having any effect on the rate of decline in Viral Load. Even Raoult's study raises questions: His argument: 'I have no deaths (and very few ICU visits) in the HCQ/AT arm' ... What we see looks convincing, but we see the same thing in the comparator arm.

Bottom tickets and Live/Covid: In the middle of a health crisis, coming with a heavy ticket was taking the risk of seeing it drowned. July and August, it's dead calm, until mid-September... So during the summer, 2-3 HIV posts with the live COVID/HIV, and in line of sight the resumption in September with the publication of a any new strategy. Especially since Raoult gave us an alternative vision of the HCV treatment method: treat until the CV is at zero; confirm, then stop the treatment. This will cost much less than this expensive treatment (Sofosbuvir). It is the CV that should guide the dosage, not the cycle or the 'methodologized' experimentation... I will explain, but I think now that we are making 2 mistakes: the Cycle is a mistake, the monoprise is a mistake. We have a duty to be smart and the cycle is un-smart. With the arrival of Islatravir, to camp on 1/7 will quickly become untenable.

29/06/20: pranks and sexual abuse of dipteran (fly-fucking)

Dr. Rehbi, always practical and right on the money:

We will have to send the High Council of Health to be trained in Morocco! France has definitely lost its knowledge! Morocco: 6 deaths for 1 million inhabitants. France : 456 ! It is the red lantern in the world in terms of lethality!

Containment: a godsend for the Speti-Vaxx: Here is what happens: because of containment, many patients could not benefit from the 'care system', so we expect to find a peri-Covid over-mortality. Well... We understand that. Paradoxically, there is an unusual decrease in 'sudden infant death syndrome'. At the same time, an equally rapid decrease in infant vaccinations. This puts them on notice... Especially since vaccinations will resume with catch-up. If it is the same with 'cot death', then there will be a co-incidence (in the epistemological sense, as Raoult would say) in one direction but also in the other, and if the 'cot death' overshoots (i.e. exceeds its usual level), they will have thought they had raised a hare. With the epidemic of epidemiologists, it will give them work!

The vaccination obligation having destroyed all hope of comparing morbidity and mortality between vaccinated and unvaccinated children in developed countries, it is Covid that has opened a 'comparative window of opportunity' that every scientist, every doctor and every parent must seize in the weeks to come: it would be possible to draw strong arguments to dare to revise the new vaccination practices imposed since 2018.

06/30/20: The accounts of the social security system are fudged in advance

Remdesivir at 3 Euros for 5 days and 5000 for 10 days. With the government having pre-ordered doses, even though the episode is over and Remdesivir has not proven even the slightest bit effective. This will impact the public accounts! The social security accounts, that concerns us all. What is given to Gilead, in pure loss, (think of Tamiflu that the French army has stocked and that is strictly useless!) every year (because it's a stock that must be rotated, every year, what is lost goes to the trash, to the garbage). In the meantime, we are closing non-delocalizable care structures? I'm preparing something about the cost footprint of HIV. I think that young people, who pay little or no social security contributions, who take useless drugs at 40-50 Eu./day, because they are worth it (the young people, not the drugs, in the mode of 'The Ideal because I'm worth it') are abusing, and I'm fed up with contributing, contributing, pissing in an endless hole violin.

The myth of the Super Contaminator: it's a myth... The SARS 'Super Contaminator' infected 100 people, mostly on the floor of his hotel room. He was sick, he gets out of the elevator, he vomits. A huge amount of virus is expelled: it is the vomiting that creates the remarkable event, not a characteristic of the individual. A guy goes to a Berlin nightclub, and 25 people get his virus... Yes... But for the rest of the day, he didn't infect anyone in particular: it's the circumstances that give him a Warholian 15 minutes!

Who will sign the state order for Remdesivir... One wonders if there will even be zoteurs to sign the Discovery article. We laugh in advance!

01/07/20: The chronically ill, under HCQ, were protected...

Exactly the question we were asking, or would have asked, if one or more ARVs had worked. If an ARV, let's say ATV, works, then we say yay! Of course, there is the question of intermittence and going back, temporarily, to a more steady pace. The other question concerns patients using HCQ on a daily basis (obviously they don't drop like flies...): are they protected against SARS-CoV-2? This Portuguese study addresses the question Chronic hydroxychloroquine treatment and SARS-CoV-2 infection. Well... The Portuguese did well against Covid, so they have few cases. No matter:



Sus à Perronne, and also Raffi We were surprised that Raffi is quite calm (don't worry, he will surely come back to the charge!)... Yes, we were surprised... And when you can read between the lines... This article asks the right questions: Threats against Didier Raoult, conflicts of interest... the infectiology department of the Nantes University Hospital in turmoil:

05/07/20: The Korean example...

Pieer Amblard, a CNRS researcher, based in Korea, gives us a first hand report, in his blog, on Mediapart: How did Korean democracy tame Covid-19? Here is an excerpt of his contribution (source):
What I still don't understand is why the HCQ ban is maintained... If there is one thing that is not very nasty and multipurpose, it is Nivaquine. Until mid-January, you could walk into a pharmacy, ask for plaquenil and walk out with it... The inclusion of Plaquenil in List 2 is worth looking into: the ANSM does not wake up one morning and ask for inclusion in List 2 overnight: it is due to harmonization with drugs of the same class. It is therefore an administrative decision, with no other basis than the fact that the drug belongs to a class. We remember that in Mediator, it is the fact of not identifying the molecule to a class, which 'protected' it. It is quite surprising... In this respect, in which class does Ritonavir belong?

Gaudin, happy with Marseille!

07/08/20: The truth finally comes out

Raoult tells us that the truth always comes out... And that's not true... We can go back to his last video and replace Hydroxychloroquine with Intermittence, it sounds the same. Especially the censorship and worse, the self-censorship. Miss Lacombe has become Personna non Grata in Guyana, and there is reason to believe that her Gileadesque bankability has plunged... And now... Let's see if Gilead will want to find her. Let them give her a real work contract and things will be clear!

A new EXPLOITABLE proof of the Eclipse: While our mind was elsewhere, our enemies point to a new publication that shows exactly what we are interested in. Interpreting it their way is a pointless distraction: what we need to do is look at the Dônnées, nothing but the Dônnées, all the Dônnées. News about the Eclipse will be our next post!

What has changed and what changes our strategic position: there are three events that change the conditions for the future: the death of Jacques Leibowitch, the success of the second 1/15, the advance of Islatravir. I am making proposals that are new, and that take into account these 3 modifiers.

10/07/20: Leibowitch, the compromise and the compromise

If you want to do something collectively, you have to negotiate an acceptable compromise. It's political. People interested in the OMNIBVS project came together. More or less interested. More or less fearful, by their nature/function, it is not objective. So we make a proposal, and Leibowitch rejects it because it seems to him too ambitious to be accepted. So be it. Then, one thing leading to another, from efarouchement to efourachement, we go from 1/7 to 2/7 and then to 3/7, and fortunately 4/7 is already approved, otherwise, from compromise to compromise, we would have found ourselves at 6/7!!!

Leibowitch denounced the compromise of the 'Masters of Chairs'(without ever naming them, it's like pissing in a violin), because that's what an undue compromise looks like, but not undue-striel. By dint of making BigPharma-compatible compromises, one is suspected of compromise. Needless to say, if Truchis wants to succeed Perronne, it is possible, but not if the external pressure (Hirsh, Gilead, Lacombe) is such that his position is at stake. An example? Simple: FOTO (the 5/7) was developed by Cal Cohen. Did Cohen move up? No! He was overhauled by Paul SAX, more Co-Labo, you die. The position, of poor XXX, at Bichat, is untenable, but it must be held. Hard... Hard...

Leibowitch wanted recognition through a clinical trial of regulatory registration. Can we prove him wrong? No! because the clinical trial took place. In fact 2 clinical trials... Because Delfraissy is both the facilitator and the blocker: one foot on the accelerator and the hand on the handbrake, that's all Delfraissy's interpersonal skills, and his only power... One could think that the industry has to feel relieved about the death of Leibowitch. At first sight, yes... It is in their interest. But also ours. Because Leibowitch, contrary to his rough image, was open to a compromise.

Feel free to comment, like, share and use

overmedication is an opportunity if you know how to use it!

142

This was originally published here, in French (link).
We provide this translation for your convenience. Practical aspects may differ where you live.



Coronavirus, HIV, ARVs, intermittence...(4) and the disappearance of J. Leibowitch

By Charles-Edouard!

On 08/03/20: Korea, champion of cumulative prevalence, Italy in its wake

Italy (and soon France?) will soon take the lead, in terms of (cumulative) prevalence (here, cumulative cases per population, x per million)
The number of 'critical' cases, among which are the deaths, is particularly high in Italy.

On 06/03/20: Dr Jacques Leibowitch passed away

You can find one of his last contributions, in video, here. In Sept. 2018, he had very officially 'said goodbye to the medical scene'. I reported it here. Age and/or illness justified his retirement. Obviously, this left me quite alone on the front line. Certainly, more alone today than yesterday, with the assurance that there will be many of us soon.

We will have to try tobe worthy of the legacy. At the request of many readers, I will make a post on this subject soon. To be continued...

Coronavirus, HIV: the Live Continue below...

Graphic update by worldometers (based on Chinese propaganda).

05/03/20: Apparent mortality rises

For a long time the official publications were sticking to a mortality of 2.1%. Now that the number of daily cases is decreasing (approx. 160/day), we are in the process of eliminating the stock of potential deaths, those who are in a serious condition (issime), among the 25.000 cases still considered as 'serious'. Let's say 1000 (because on this point, it seems to be getting better too): 4000 out of 80.000 is 5%. A bit lower than my calculation of last week (7%), but undoubtedly more than the current 3000/80.000 or 3,75% and the 2,1% claimed at the beginning. This is very surprising because the mortality outside Hubei is much lower! This would support the idea that Chinese doctors are a little more efficient with time, i.e. that they improve their therapy

It is not good to be a Chinese alarmist: The famous Dr Li Wenliang, who put everyone on alert, was reprimanded like a rotten fish from Wuhan, and, moreover, he died! Poor man... Lesson to be learned...

On 04/03/20: Remedy against the @PandaVirus

Here is a first list of drug candidates for the treatment of @PandaVirus: Favipiravir, Remdesivir, Chloroquine, Ribavirin, Umifenovir, Lopinavir, Hydroxychloroquine, Ritonavir(video highly recommended). Another list is circulating: atazanavir followed by Efavirenz , ritonavir, and dolutegravir(source: here), and a few others, which puts Biktegravir (an avatar of Dolutegravir) on the list.

What does this have to do with us? First of all, if there is a cure, the soufflet will drop a bit... If that cure is not a common ARV, well, that will be interesting to know, but not much more. If it is an ARV, then the market for ARVs will expand to the extent of the critical cases (about 10,000 for the moment) and the health workers who will want to have it on hand for themselves, not to mention the non-critical cases (about 100,000 people, for the moment) (counting a month's worth of treatment) that we will want to treat in order to curb the epidemic. In France, there is hardly any stock of Liponavir for 3-5000 people (continuous treatment).

At first glance, this is still feasible, but the situation could grow beyond what is imaginable.
In another example, a leading reseller of primers and amino acids for PCR warns its customers: 'our teams are doing their utmost to increase stocks and we invite you to do the same to avoid the effect of any delay in delivery; your usual discounts are suspended until further notice'.

Tik-Tok Vietnam: super fun here is the short version and the long animated version

On 03/03/20: #IAmNotAChineseVirus

The Obama administration has banned research on the virulence of pathogens, rightly believing that it is too dangerous. Well... The Chinese scientists, who were working on it, in the USA, put their hands in their pockets, their underpants in their suitcases and went back... home... They are the same ones who, today, publish a paper to accredit that the Wuhan virus (@PandaVirus) comes naturally from a natural 'reservoir' of bats, which would have come en masse to shop at the market, 900 km away... And that the virus is a very close relative of another one whose characteristics have been published (by them), publication that took place well after the rather successful virus release.

For the moment, this does not matter to the Chinese authorities... A few million thousand Chinese more or less... But the Iranians will be a bit more careful, if one of their Ayatollahs goes there, which they are expecting. So, #cestpouscesthepangolins, we have not finished hearing about it!

On the ARV front, nothing is moving. The lack of test kits is glaring, including in the US. It is urgent to replace PCR by a simpler, faster test, but it is not yet ready... We should see an outbreak of mortality in South Korea, unless...

Chloroquinine: I subscribed to the Youtube channel of IHU Méditerranée-Infection, because it is suddenly a light in the night. The use of Chloroquinine has been included by the Chinese in their treatment protocol... To be continued... To be continued...

On 02/03/20: Silk Road and @PandaVirus

Here's what A. Faucy says about it:

Seeing the shortages and panics in supermarkets, we can envisage that if a known molecule seems effective then it will be in short supply. It would only be because health care workers will want to protect themselves first, which is quite understandable. (a fifth doctor died in Wuhan)

Iran has just forbidden the Friday prayer... As if everything is possible...

141

This was originally published here, in French (link).
We provide this translation for your convenience. Practical aspects may differ where you live.



Coronavirus, HIV, ARVs, intermittence...(3)

By Charles-Edouard!

Coronavirus, HIV: the Live Continue below...

Graphic update by worldometers (based on Chinese 'war' propaganda).

Le 01/03/20: The virus soon in cruising speed?

The virus is gaining momentum Outside of China, but really Outside of Hubei, so the rest of China (outside of Hubei) is vulnerable. Japan is scrambling to save its Olympics, but if the rest of the world is under a rock, one wonders who will want to make the trip. Scenes of panic in supermarkets are making the rounds

On 02/28/20: Chloroquinine and focus

Here is a video of Pr Didier Raoult, Director of the IHU Méditerranée Infection and another one here just as interesting

The 27/02/20: Korea, Iran and the West take over

The Chinese method is hard, unbearable and ... effective(anyway!). The containment has an enormous economic cost: the factories are closed (China) and the customers are absent (West)

Where are the merchants of illusions? What about homeopathy? We stay in bed??? And if you believe that 5 prayers a day will bring you relief, then good luck! To believe is the droppings of the mind
The Shincheonji sect will have played a role, in spite of itself hopefully, in the resumption of the epidemic.

The 27/02/20: Sharp drop in deaths in China

While we were close to 150 deaths per day, we are now down to 30 deaths per day. If the figures are true, then hope seems to be able to change sides. The ball is now in Italy and Korea. In the last century, such a virus would have caused carnage. Let's bet that the funding will be sustained. A team from Nankai University, which writes that COV-19 has an 'HIV-like mutation' that allows it to enter the human body quickly by binding with a receptor called ACE2 on a cell membrane. Careful semantic slippage. It is one thing to say that COVID19 has attachment mechanisms like other viruses and to say that it uses the same receptor, which would give it a hint of relatedness. Alternatively, if we are talking about different receptors, this would give credence to the fact that there is no kinship. The conspiracy theorists are quick to make the amalgam, which is inappropriate.

Chinese factories will eventually reopen, but when? In a 'communist' country, this would be a good time to ask for wage increases!
For Chinese patients, facing the impossibility to get supplies (quarantine, shortages, etc.) the intermittence is to be studied closely! But well... I don't speak Chinese...

The Iranian Minister of Health, by his own admission infected with COVID-19, appeared in a governmental meeting, televised, sneezing 6 times. Nice example! Well, if he infected all these clowns...

On 02/26/20: Are you ready?

WHO etc. capitulate, today: WHO says the rest of the world is not yet ready for the spread of virus, cdc says coronavirus is probably pandemic, US may have up to 300 million masks for health workers. And since China doesn't export anymore, that means the market is dried up and you can't get any more!

Mortality will depend on the environment... Those who are going to die tomorrow are today counted as worrying cases (about 9.000 out of the 80.000 estimated cases). Let's say that a third will not survive. Let's say 3000... On top of the 3000 registered cases, that makes a rate of 7%. Not sure if we stay on a 2% rate as it is currently assumed. In any case, where the health care system is precarious, mortality will be higher. Among S+? We will see... For those who are not yet on treatment, there is still time to start, and then you can always go on intermittent treatment...

Be careful with the stock!!! If ARVs (in principle PIs and DTGs) are validated as useful for treatment, and therefore for prophylaxis, health workers in contact with patients will demand treatment, which is understandable... And then, the market will become very, very tight. And you will be happy to have a stock for family use, because, in case of rupture, a prescription is only a vulgar piece of paper... These are the same doctors, who yesterday refused you the intermittence, who tomorrow, will come whining to our door. We will respond as best we can, but not without compensation!

Key, lock and P4 laboratory: now that we can see that the release of the virus will have been successful, it remains to develop the antidote: vaccine or medication. With a bit of luck, an existing anti-viral will be a little bit efficient: for that we have to test. To develop a new drug, either we go forward at the shortest possible time (cf Islatravir), or we take the highway (cf dolutegravir). An inhibitor is a molecule that is placed in an enzyme to block its activity: the better the key fits in the lock, the better it is. And what could be more obvious than to have plans of the lock? To have a mapping, a kind of imaging of the enzyme, one has to produce the enzyme, crystallize it, pass it to the synchrotron, analyze it and give the plans to the chemists. This is not trivial, but the path to follow is known. Step number 1 is to produce the enzyme and for that you need virus (in numbers): a virus farm, that is, a P4 laboratory. At the moment, people who are well equipped and have access to the virus, are trying to put it into culture (for a good cause, one might say). The irony is that the 'solution' requires the same technical means that may have caused the outbreak. On the one hand, we can look with suspicion at those states that build P4s, such as France, since it is not to make caramel, but on the other hand, without P4s, you can't do anything in a hurry: you have to cultivate the Virus. Siliciano and Co, must be in a hurry...

The 25/02/20: Pandemic... or not ?

Of course, it looks bad for Korea, Italy (which is already struggling economically) or Iran, but the figures, based on Chinese propaganda, take an interesting turn: new cases, outside Hubei province, are down sharply, which puts China-hors-Hubei, on par with the rest of the World: containment measures are useful; they will remain necessary for a long time. Spring-like temperatures are coming. It's getting better because the plants are shut down... And they have to stay that way until the end of the epidemic.

A direct and unconditional bonus to households is the only way to get the economy moving again quickly. Because of the coronavirus, Le Maire announces '30 to 40%' less tourists: mass tourism ends up spoiling, so maybe it's not so bad...

Still nothing new on the ARVs front... It was a blank slate?

Le 24/02/20: Coronavirus, Pangolins and Scapegoats

South Korea at maximum alert level, Italy takes over, increasing mortality in Iran...

23.000 people are declared cured. That's as many candidates for the position of health assistant. However, we don't hear about it... The theory of natural emergence of the virus at the Wuhan fish market is now controversial in China itself... The publication is here.

Now that the story has been officially challenged, it is likely that the theory of the Huanan market (in Wuhan, epicenter of the virus release) as the origin of the pandemic is dead.

The published study reveals that the new coronavirus was introduced in the seafood market from another placeand then rapidly spread to the market.

140

This was originally published here, in French (link).
We provide this translation for your convenience. Practical aspects may differ where you live.



Coronavirus, HIV, ARVs, intermittence...(2)

By Charles-Edouard!

From my perspective, the subject is interesting because it has unexpected consequences. Obviously, if it is contained like SARS, the soufflé falls and the time spent on it goes out the window. On the other hand, if it spreads, it could have an accelerating effect on subjects that interest me

Coronavirus, HIV: the Live Continue below...

The live continues there...

Update in real time ! (the order is reversed). The table below is updated by worldometers (based on Chinese 'war' propaganda). This Live is the continuation of last week'sLive...

Age, gender, current conditions of cases and deaths related to COVID-19

Based on the 72,314 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases in China as of February 11, a paper from China's CCDC found that the risk of death increases with age, as follows:

The 23/02: This virus is a BIOLOGICAL ARM!

I explain myself and this has nothing to do with theories that the virus came from the virology laboratory of Wuhan, rather than from the Fish Market. This virus is formidable: it spreads rapidly, there is no medicine and no vaccine. If it is not (or not very) immunizing (unlike Ebola, for example, and like HIV), it is reasonable to doubt that there will ever be a vaccine, at least with a long immunization period. Let's say no vaccine... Never... To put it simply.

SARS and MERS have disappeared. Until recently, SARS and MERS would have disappeared like plagues, maybe even the Spanish flu, like the dinosaurs or the mammoths. No resurrection possible. Except that now, the military or others keep the viruses... The smallpox virus is kept in order to be able to make a new vaccine immediately, thus neutralizing the fact that the other side has kept it too (balance of terror). Smallpox is immunizing, therefore of no major interest. They also kept SARS and MERS... Of course... But SARS and MERS were defeated by containment and hygiene measures. So, as a weapon of war, it's not very interesting: it can be annoying but it's not decisive. Now, the Iranians (and soon Kim Jun Un) have the COVID-19... Let's assume that this affair ends like SARS or MERS. We won't have any more vaccines or drugs for that. Whoever has kept the virus will have a WEAPON. Reminds me of Nuits Fauves... I like to feel dangerous...

In 2003, China accounted for 4% of the world's GDP, in 2013... 16% !!

Another Australian tested positive after his extraction from the DP... The flu disappears with the good weather. And Coronavirus? it is not obvious! see here.

The 22/02: The second breath and delay in the ignition

This video is very illustrative.

While they had been 'cleared' by the Japanese method, Australia evacuated 170 citizens from the Diamond Princess on Thursday. Two evacuated Australians tested positive upon their return. This is consistent with our estimate that 2-5% are 'false negatives'; further exfiltrated Americans are testing positive, confirming the quarantine break in Yokohama. US (CDC) and Japanese experts are now in total disagreement with their respective governments.

Times have changed, but nature has not... The Nobel Prize rewarded the development of a diagnostic test (Elisa HIV) after a tedious work. Here, everyone says they have enough kits... How is this possible? PCR simply did not exist before, it was invented later. It is a system of thermocycling (heating, cooling) which allows to enrich repeatedly, exponentially, a reaction with well chosen amino acids. Once we know the code to recognize, we choose 'primers' in immediately available banks.

So, I am told, for a known sequence, the development of a PCR test is quite trivial. For HIV, it is recommended to prefer the Elisa test to the PCR test. Because Elisa is sensitive earlier than PCR even very sensitive: there is a delay effect, which is also called Eclipse (not sure if it's the same as the one often mentioned here): During the initial Eclipse, the virus has entered but the PCR is not yet reacting, it will, but not right away; it is a delayed start-up. How long is this delay? We will know soon by following the American Quarantine of the DP Cobayes

Coronavirus, START and HIV:

Sudden drop in CD4 heralds coronavirus death. Any risk assessment has an environmental component. For HIV it is demonstrated by START, or rather by the linearity between HIV-CAUSAL, START and TEMPRANO: where tuberculosis is prevalent, the risk is higher. In our tropics, the excess risk associated with delaying (waiting 350) ARV treatment is zero. Where there is a prevalence of an aggravating pathology, or as long as there is a surge, even a transient one, entering the treatment seems rather a good idea (those who have the luxury of being able to defer, can also enter and then leave (LOTTI, SALTO...) or... enter and then lighten;-) . Those who reasonably defer ARVS are excluded from the public debate, but welcome here. As long as the environment is healthy, there is no objective reason to stigmatize them (except to be stipendiary), however, the Wuhan virus (aka COVID-19) changes the game. With DTG, we'll knock down any CV in less than a month...

If ARVs are effective against COVID, then the demand for prophylactic treatment will explode: those who are a little low in their stock may want to switch to the pharmacy(I'm fine)...

The 21/02: Heaven help you ???

In South Korea, about ten cases, in a church. Because, yes... Just think, Koreans go to church, it still exists! Well... This is the perfect opportunity for a miracle ;-)
This rabble hates me and it's reciprocal: the idea of lying (or even raping) to children disgusts me. It's physical. Lying makes my skin crawl.

Full-scale human experimentation continues. Lethality decreases asymptotically, probably around 1-2%: You know what FAUCY says:
Where the technical means exist (rich countries), it mainly condemns the very old. Is it a flu? There are still 3-4 weeks of sick leave and factory closures...

On the ARVs front, no news, even if we know that they have been used in very serious cases, without recent success. The 'true' reliability of the 'tests' is poorly documented... The apparent lull in Wuhan is due to a change in the accounting system (another one...). The outbreaks in Chinese prisons underline the high transmissibility of the virus in confined spaces.

The 21/02: Fukushima and now Yokohama

Here is an intelligible testimony from Professor Kentaro Iwata of the Faculty of Infectious Diseases of Kobe University on the conditions on board the ship, 'completely chaotic'. Not sure that this will earn him a promotion! (the government contests his testimony... but nobody to contest the failure)

The US government has sided with A. Faucy: quarantine on the Diamont Princess It is a failure and to extract its nationals from it. For the legitimists, who only trust a medical authority, let me remind you that A. Faucy is THE FATHER of the intermittence and made the first 'on 14'. But well... Better lying than hanging, if you want to keep your job, don't insist too much...

2 deaths among the passengers of the cruise ship Diamond Princess in Japan: a man and a woman in their 80s, both suffering from an underlying disease.

The criterion to get out of quarantine is twofold: test negative and your co-cabin too. Madam is neg. Mr. is pos. It doesn't work... We will therefore be able to judge the validity of this criterion on the spot. In the vast human experimentation undertaken by the Abe government, either the 'liberation' of 1500 passengers is 100% a good idea, or it will be seen. And we have to use our favorite tool: the deconfusion table. Already, 300 Americans have been extracted and 14 have learned their positivity on the plane... If we extrapolate, about sixty people will come out while they may be infected. This article : Are the coronavirus tests right?. We will know soon!

The 19/02: the passengers of the incubator disembark: how many zombies among them?

Some 1500 people, negative to the test (CV), are going to disembark without any other form of quarantine: how many are infected without having changed their clothes yet? This is a concern. Those who will return to the USA will have to spend another 2 weeks in quarantine, since the first quarantine was a bloody failure...

As we have noted many times, the idea that thousands of people are about to be released while hundreds of cases of the virus are still being confirmed seems like madness. When most patients will face two more weeks of quarantine when they return home, how do they plan to get there? There is no word of an official government transport. By allowing them to return home, Japan is breaking the quarantine. The incubator did work!

18/02:

Dr. Anthony Fauci, (a.k.a. Big-Boss), said that the original idea for keeping people safely quarantined on the ship was not unreasonable. Yet, he adds:
All scenarios are possible: at best the virus stays contained in Wuhan and other countries manage to track/isolate/treat the victims, we get away with 10,000 deaths. Or, it starts again from somewhere vulnerable and it can quickly rise to 1,000,000.

No news on the ARV use front: a trial is reported here in Guangzhou. WHO says it is waiting for results. The Japanese government has begun preparations so that clinical trials using HIV drugs on the new coronavirus can begin as soon as possible. Japan appears to be preparing for a more widespread regional epidemic.

Japan confirms another 88 cases aboard the 'Diamond Princess' (total 542). Apparently, they are moving to allow people with negative status to leave the ship. They let people marinate in the best of incubators and now let them off regardless of that other eclipse that is the time between infection and the appearance of the viral load?!?! Finally... The governments that repatriate their citizens (Australia, UK, ...) put them back in quarantine upon arrival. But what is Goshn complaining about?

The epicenter declared by the Chinese propaganda authorities is the Huanan Fish and Seafood Market. How far is it from the P4 virology lab?

For those in whom the disease occurs, they either get over it or die. For the moment this ratio is 1/10...